The Vantage EURUSD CFD was priced near 1.14596 as of 03:55 UTC (11:55 GMT+8) on 22 June 2026, close to its weakest level since late March. Among the main forces weighing on the euro this week were a more hawkish-than-expected Federal Reserve on 17 June 2026, and persistent uncertainty around the fragile US-Iran interim ceasefire framework, with Switzerland talks still ongoing but their outcome uncertain.

The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but its latest projections showed nine of 18 members projecting at least one rate increase during 2026.^[1] That hawkish tilt lifted the US dollar broadly. Separately, the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points on 11 June 2026, its first rate increase since September 2023, lifting it from 2.00% to 2.25%, yet the euro nevertheless weakened as dollar demand remained dominant.^[2]

EURUSD chart: what the 15-minute view shows

On the 15-minute EURUSD chart, the pair traded near 1.159-1.162 through 14-16 June before a sharp sell-off on 17 June drove price to a low near 1.143. Since then, EURUSD has recovered partially to the 1.145-1.148 area, where the 15-minute 50-period MA (1.14695) and 200-period MA (1.14671) now sit in a near-flat alignment, a sign the pair is searching for direction.

The RSI per the TradingView setup used for this analysis reads 42.71, with the RSI moving average at 48.15 — both below the 50 midpoint, consistent with the soft tone following the 17 June sell-off. Volume on the Vantage CFD feed spiked sharply around that session, then eased as price consolidated.

Table 1: Key levels as of 03:55 UTC, 22 June 2026. Sources: TradingView, Trading Economics. Indicative only.

What is driving the euro to USD move

Hawkish Fed weighs on Euro to USD rate

The June FOMC decision on 17 June left rates unchanged by a unanimous 12-0 vote, but the updated dot plot showed nine of the 18 members who submitted projections expecting at least one rate increase during 2026. That was a marked shift from March, when the median dot had still implied a cut.

EURUSD fell sharply following the statement as markets repriced the Fed’s policy outlook. On the ECB side, policymaker Pierre Wunsch told Reuters on 19 June that a further 25 basis-point hike could come as soon as July or September if services inflation continues to broaden beyond energy.^[4]

Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven dollar demand

The US-Iran interim ceasefire framework remains in place but is fragile. Talks in Switzerland continued on 21-22 June 2026 with Bloomberg reporting “encouraging progress” and a 60-day roadmap toward a final agreement. However, the process has been complicated by continued fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and by Iran’s periodic claims that the US has not fully honoured the initial terms.

This unresolved uncertainty has kept geopolitical risk on traders’ radar and supported the US dollar as a relative safe haven, while oil prices remain sensitive to any signal that Middle East supply disruption could intensify.^[3]

What to watch on the EUR/USD forecast

• Fed speakers, week of 23 June 2026: Any FOMC commentary on the pace of the next potential move will test whether the hawkish shift has broad support or reflects only a minority of members.
• ECB speakers, ongoing: Philip Lane and Pierre Wunsch have signalled openness to another hike. Any softening of that tone would remove a key support layer for the euro.
• US-Iran developments, ongoing: Progress or breakdown in Middle East negotiations would likely move the dollar meaningfully through the oil-inflation-Fed channel.
• Eurozone CPI, next scheduled release: A reading above expectations could reinforce ECB tightening expectations and provide the EUR/USD with a catalyst to recover ground.

Risk management for EURUSD traders

EURUSD dropped around 180 pips in under 24 hours during the 17 June 2026 session — a reminder of how quickly positioning can shift when macro data and geopolitical headlines arrive together. Market participants often monitor the 1.143-1.144 zone as near-term reference following that sell-off low, and the 1.1500 level as a broader area above. Stop Loss placement around structurally significant levels carries greater importance in headline-driven sessions like these.

Leverage is a double-edged tool that amplifies losses as well as gains. Traders managing correlated positions across forex pairs should assess combined exposure carefully and review position sizing relative to account equity ahead of further Fed commentary and any developments on the Iran-US diplomatic track.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Euro fell to $1.15, its lowest level since late March — Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed on 22 June 2026.

[2] “Monetary policy decisions, 11 June 2026 — European Central Bank” https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html Accessed on 22 June 2026.

[3] “US-Iran Talks on Lasting Ceasefire Begin in Switzerland — Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-21/us-and-iran-poised-to-begin-swiss-talks-on-lasting-ceasefire Accessed on 22 June 2026.

[4] “ECB’s Wunsch keeps July hike in play despite Iran deal — Reuters, 19 June 2026” https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/0619/1579252-wunsch-on-ecb-rate-hikes/ Accessed on 22 June 2026.

[5] “June FOMC: Fed holds interest rates steady as Warsh era begins — Fox Business, 17 June 2026” https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-june-17-2026 Accessed on 22 June 2026.