* White House 3-5 day timeline is not true; Trump says peace talks ‘possible’

* Iran yet to decide on joining new round of talks with the US

* US stocks rise, oil climbs after Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire

* Precious metals gain, but appear vulnerable to downturn

FX: USD was quiet and likely impacted by headline fatigue. The extension of the ceasefire deadline was not wholly unexpected with President Trump apparently willing to give Iran another three to five days of ceasefire and does not want to use force any longer, though the ceasefire isn’t open ended. But official talks are in limbo even if they may be going on behind the scenes in other channels. Short term relief is evident with quiet price action marking time. The DXY moved very modestly above the 100- and 200-day SMAs at 98.49/52.

EUR was relatively quiet and looked like it was consolidating recent moves in a tight range around mid-1.17 until it succumbed to late selling. On the central bank front, ECB’s Lane said it was too early to assess the duration of the Iran war shock and difficult to know whether it was temporary or something bigger, The major will move above 1.18 on a US-Iran deal, stay rangebound while we mark time, but slide potentially below 1.16 on any more negative Middle East news as the dollar attracts haven buyers. PMI data is released today – see below for more.

GBP printed a quiet inside day. March inflation data was in line at a headline level, while the core figures were cooler, but the all-important services was hotter from the prior and more than expected. The BoE will likely be willing to wait and see for more data at this stage, as the lack of overt second-round effects means they have time to assess and weigh the growth versus inflation situation. Worries are picking up about the government’s ability to stay within its fiscal rules/buffer due to the Middle East conflict.

JPY was also very quiet as prices continued to track sideways. As we have said previously, the longer prices track in a tight range, typically the bigger the breakout will be. Data releases included a disappointing trade release, with a smaller balance dragged down by higher (energy) imports in March. Near-term risk lies with Friday’s March CPI figures which is the last major data point ahead of next Tuesday’s BoJ policy decision.

US stocks: The S&P 500 added 1.05% to close at 7,138, the Nasdaq was 1.73% lower at 26,937 and the Dow Jones settled up by 0.69% at 49,490. Both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq hits fresh record highs. Tech was the big leader with Communication Services and Energy also strong, with crude oil above $100 once again. Real Estate, Industrials, Financials and Utilities were the sectors in the red. Micron and Sandisk posted all-time highs as the Semiconductor index hit an intraday high record for an 11^th straight session and notched its 16^th straight day of gains – its longest streak ever. Adobe closed up 3.5% after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang tipped his hat the outgoing CEO and the creative tools firm announced a $25bn share buyback. Alphabet unveiled chips for AI training and inference in the latest challenge to NVIDIA, with GOOG closing up 2.2%. Broadcom jumped over 5% and hit record highs as it deepened ties with Google with Network Insights.

Asian stocks: Futures are mixed. APAC stocks traded mixed on the uncertainty over the Middle East ceasefire talks. The ASX 200 sold off no weak financials and health while mining was muted despite BHP gains after posting its quarterly production update. The Nikkei 225 printed a fresh all time high on better trade data and the likelihood the BoJ will not raise rates next week. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite were mixed with tech weakness hurting Hong Kong but strength in Chinese oil majors.

Gold had a relatively quiet day sat on the 100-day SMA at $4,718. The 50-day SMA is above at $4,883.

Day Ahead – PMIs

PMIs are private sector business surveys which are forecast to decline again after the March series had already pointed to a sharp global slowdown. Price components will be watched as they could offer clues on whether energy costs are filtering into other prices and potentially second round effects. The surveys can be tricky to interpret when global volatility and uncertainty is high.

The eurozone is typically the most widely watched PMI. April readings will likely confirm that other sentiment survey results have pointed to an increase in input prices, which the ECB has been closely tracking as a bellwether for near-term inflationary pressures. From a policy perspective, ECB President Lagarde continues to stress a wait-and-see approach. However, with March’s forecasts already out of date, tightening in 2026 remains a distinct possibility as policy is neutral. Markets currently see very little chance of a move next week, a 70%+ chance of a hike in June and just over 50bps in 2026.

Chart of the Day – Tesla bounce or dead cat?

Tesla reported its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell, disclosing better than expected results. The report slightly boosted the company’s share price, which has limped along this year while its CEO Elon Musk has tried to sell the company’s new vision of humanoid robots and self-driving robotaxis. Its core EV business has struggled in the face of competition from Chinese counterparts and backlash against his close involvement with the Trump administration. Tesla revealed EPS of 41c, morethan the 37c that Wall Street expected. The company reported a positive free cash flow but missed market expectations of its revenue with $22.39bn, weaker than the $22.6bn Wall Street estimated. Importantly, the stock already reflects high expectations for execution in autonomous driving and robotics, leaving it exposed to risks from regulatory delays or operational challenges. Chart wise, the 200-day SMA sits at $400.07 with the 50-day at $387.51 along with a major long-term Fib level. April lows are around $337 with the 100-day SMA above at $410.95. Options markets had seen a 5% move up or down on the Thursday open, but the stock looks marginally higher up around 1%.