The Vantage EUR/USD CFD was trading near 1.15994 as of 03:09 UTC (11:09 GMT+8) on 15 June 2026, just below a session high of 1.16010 and holding near the top of its weekly range.^[1]

Two forces are driving the euro higher against the US dollar: the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% on 11 June, its first hike since 2023^[5], and optimism over a US-Iran peace deal is unwinding safe-haven dollar flows.^[3]

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, confirmed by the Senate on 13 May 2026 and sworn in on 22 May 2026 — chairs his first FOMC meeting on 16-17 June. Rates are widely expected to hold at 3.50%-3.75%, but the updated dot plot and Warsh’s press conference will set the tone for the US dollar index through the summer.^[4]

All prices are from the Vantage EUR/USD CFD as of 03:09 UTC, 15 June 2026. Charts are indicative, from TradingView. This is not financial advice.

EUR/USD chart: what the EURUSD TradingView setup is showing

The EURUSD chart on TradingView covers 9-15 June 2026. The pair fell to a week-low of 1.1499 on 11 June amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, which coincided with increased safe-haven demand for the US dollar. The reversal came on 12 June when softer US Producer Price Index data and the ECB rate decision appeared to shift market positioning away from the dollar.^[3]

By 15 June, the EUR/USD rate climbed back above both the 15-minute 50-period MA at 1.15636 and the 15-minute 200-period MA at 1.15873, as shown in the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Price holding above both MAs on the 15-minute timeframe is consistent with the short-term positive momentum seen since the 12 June low.

The RSI (14) reads 54.90 on the signal line and 57.07 on its MA, comfortably in neutral territory, well below the 70 overbought level. The RSI had briefly spiked above 70 on 14 June during the surge toward 1.16100 before cooling back. Activity on the Vantage CFD feed increased noticeably on 12-13 June during the reversal, consistent with the shift in sentiment.

EURUSD News: Two drivers behind the EUR/USD move today

ECB rate hike: first increase since 2023

On 11 June 2026, the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25%, citing elevated inflation pressures including higher energy prices linked to Middle East tensions. Eurozone consumer prices ran at 3.2% in May, well above the 2% target, and core inflation rose to 2.5%.^[5]

Updated ECB projections put headline inflation at 3.0% for 2026 (up from 2.6%) and 2.3% for 2027. GDP growth was cut to 0.8% for 2026 after the eurozone contracted 0.2% in Q1. Markets are now pricing at least one further hike, with September the most likely date. The euro initially dipped toward 1.1500 after the decision before recovering as the Iran deal narrative took over.

Iran peace deal unwinds the dollar safe-haven premium

The dollar index traded near 99.5 on 15 June amid reports of the interim agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, halting the conflict and setting the stage for 60 days of negotiations, with a formal signing scheduled in Switzerland on 19 June.^[6] The interim deal is reported to include lifting blockades and easing oil sanctions on Iran, with the nuclear programme the subject of subsequent 60-day talks rather than an immediate settlement.

The announcement coincided with oil prices falling to a two-month low, easing energy-driven inflation concerns and reducing demand for the dollar as a refuge currency, factors that appeared to support the euro’s recovery from the 1.1499 low earlier this week.

EUR/USD key levels to watch

Reference zones from the Vantage EUR/USD CFD as of 03:09 UTC, 15 June 2026. Not trade signals. Learn about the basics of support and resistance in our guide.

Table 1: Key EUR/USD levels as of 03:09 UTC, 15 June 2026. Sources: Vantage EUR/USD CFD, TradingView. Indicative only.

What to watch for EUR/USD news this week

• FOMC decision and Warsh press conference, 17 June 2026: Hold expected at 3.50%-3.75%. The dot plot and Warsh’s tone will set the USD direction for the rest of 2026.
• Iran deal signing, 19 June 2026: A completed deal would extend the dollar unwind and support the euro. Any breakdown revives safe-haven USD demand.
• ECB speakers, week of 15 June 2026: Watch for guidance on a second 2026 hike. July vs September timing matters for EUR/USD positioning.
• Eurozone flash PMIs, w/c 23 June 2026: Given Q1 2026’s 0.2% GDP contraction, a weak PMI print could temper expectations for further ECB tightening.

Stop loss and position sizing

Market participants often monitor 1.1499-1.1550 as a stop loss reference zone, given its role as the week’s structural low and the level where the 11 June selloff found support. A sustained close below that area may prompt a reassessment of near-term CFD exposure across USD-correlated pairs. Review combined positions before the FOMC outcome on 17 June 2026.

Leverage amplifies both gains and losses in CFD trading. In headline-driven markets, intraday ranges can expand sharply on a single news item. Review position sizing relative to account equity ahead of the Warsh press conference and the Iran deal signing.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “Euro holds near $1.16, on track for 0.5% weekly gain – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed on 15 June 2026.

[2] “US and Iran Move Closer to Interim Peace Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-12/us-iran-edge-toward-interim-peace-deal-that-will-reopen-hormuz Accessed on 15 June 2026.

[3] “Forex Today: Renewed hopes of US-Iran peace deal help market mood improve – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-renewed-hopes-of-us-iran-peace-deal-help-market-mood-improve-202606120838 Accessed on 15 June 2026.

[4] “Kevin Warsh takes oath of office as chairman of the Federal Reserve – Federal Reserve Board” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm Accessed on 15 June 2026.

[5] “Euro Area Interest Rate – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate Accessed on 15 June 2026.

[6] “Dollar Set for Second Weekly Loss Amid US-Iran Ceasefire Deal – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/05/29/dollar-heads-for-small-weekly-loss-on-middle-east-ceasefire-deal-expectations.html Accessed on 15 June 2026.

[7] “EUR/USD Forecast: Kevin Warsh debut as Fed Chair and war drums to keep volatility high – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-volatile-days-ahead-with-fed-announcement-and-war-headlines-202606121542 Accessed on 15 June 2026.

[8] “US and Iran Agree to Deal Halting War That Shook Middle East – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-14/pakistan-says-us-and-iran-have-reached-a-peace-deal Accessed on 15 June 2026.