Oil Prices Today: Brent at $78, WTI at $74 as Peace Deal Wipes War Premium
Vantage Editorial Team >
Vantage Editorial Team >
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Updated Tue, 2026 June 23 06:27
The brent crude oil price is down close to 19% over the past month.[1] UKOUSD closed at $78.16 on 23 June 2026. WTI crude oil (USOUSD) sat near $74.38, hovering at its lowest level since early March.[7] Both are pricing a substantial unwind of the geopolitical risk premium that sent oil above $120 in April.
The driver: a US-Iran interim peace framework signed at the G7 summit has reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping and authorised Iranian crude sales for 60 days.[3] Gulf producers are readying output increases, and the US Treasury has lifted restrictions on Iranian deliveries. Current oil-market sentiment is increasingly focused on supply normalisation rather than supply disruption.
All prices are as of 02:28 UTC on 23 June 2026, from the Vantage UKOUSD and USOUSD CFD feeds. Charts from TradingView. This is not financial advice.
Key Points
- Brent crude oil price down ~19% in a month, trading near $78.16 on 23 June 2026 as the US-Iran peace roadmap accelerates Hormuz supply recovery.
- UKOUSD and USOUSD are both below their 200-period MAs (100.01 and 94.91 respectively) with RSI readings below 30, indicating oversold conditions on the TradingView setup used for this analysis.
- The EIA’s latest June outlook points to softer global oil demand growth expectations for 2026, revising its prior forecast of 1.2 million barrels per day growth downward[4] , adding to the bearish supply outlook and the supply-recovery price move.
Brent Crude Oil Price (UKOUSD): What the Chart Shows
The Brent daily chart can broadly be divided into three phases. From October to late February, UKOUSD drifted below both moving averages in a tight range. The Middle East conflict that began on 28 February 2026[5] sent prices from the low $60s above $120 at the April peak.
Since that peak, UKOUSD has retraced a substantial portion of the conflict-driven advance. The 50-period MA sits at 79.28, with price now below it. The 200-period MA is at 100.01, acting as a distant reference given the scale of the reversal. The RSI (14) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis reads 28.19 (signal line 34.31), hitting below the 30 threshold commonly associated with oversold conditions, although oversold readings do not necessarily signal an immediate reversal.
Goldman Sachs recently lowered its Brent forecast for Q4 2026 to $80 per barrel as expectations for improving regional supply conditions weighed on the outlook.[2]
WTI Crude Oil Price (USOUSD): The US Benchmark
WTI crude oil (USOUSD) reflects a similar technical and fundamental backdrop, albeit at a lower absolute price level. The Vantage USOUSD CFD closed near $74.38 on 23 June 2026. The 50-period MA is at 74.55, with price just below it. The 200-period MA sits at 94.91. The RSI (14) reads 29.17 (signal line 36.45) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis, also below the 30 threshold associated with oversold conditions.
One WTI-specific factor: the conflict drove US crude net exports to a record 5.8 million barrels per day in April as buyers sought supply to replace disrupted Hormuz flows.[4] As Iranian and Gulf crude re-enter the market, that export demand premium is expected to ease.
Three Forces Driving Crude Oil Prices Today
- US-Iran peace framework and Hormuz reopening. Qatar and Pakistan confirmed a 60-day roadmap to a final agreement. The US Treasury authorised Iranian oil production and sales for 60 days.[3] Iran raised visible Hormuz shipments to the highest level since the conflict began and cut cargo prices sold to China. Kuwait lifted force majeure notices. Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC resumed operations.
- EIA demand revision. The EIA revised its 2026 global demand outlook downward in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook, reflecting weaker expected consumption growth relative to earlier forecasts.[4] US shale output is near a record 13.6 million barrels per day, representing structural bearish supply that was masked during the conflict premium but is now reasserting.
- OPEC+ signalling and UAE departure. OPEC+ agreed to a 188,000 barrels per day June quota increase, largely symbolic, representing less than 2% of disrupted supply.[6] Markets continue to monitor reports of quota-related tensions within OPEC+, particularly involving the UAE. Gulf producers with available capacity are preparing to ramp output once Hormuz flows normalise.
Key Levels on the Oil Price Chart
Reference levels as of 23 June 2026 (02:28 UTC). Not trade signals.
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Key context |
| UKOUSD (Brent crude) | $74.00 / $70.00 | $84.00 / $90.00 | Below MA50 (79.28) and MA200 (100.01); RSI 28.19 |
| USOUSD (WTI) | $70.00 / $67.00 | $80.00 / $85.00 | Below MA50 (74.55) and MA200 (94.91); RSI 29.17 |
Table 1: Key levels as of 23 June 2026. Sources: TradingView, Investing.com. Indicative only.
On UKOUSD, the $74 zone corresponds to the pre-conflict price area from late February, a reference level traders are monitoring. Below it, the $64 to $67 range from late 2025 becomes technically relevant on the weekly chart. On USOUSD, the equivalent pre-conflict zone is near $67. Resistance on both instruments aligns with the 50-period MA and the lower edge of the prior consolidation zone.
What to Watch
- EIA weekly crude inventory report, 25 June 2026: The first inventory read under the post-Hormuz supply recovery will show how quickly US stock levels are responding.
- Strait of Hormuz shipping data, ongoing: Daily shipping reports remain the single most market-sensitive input. Any disruption to the reopening timeline shifts the supply narrative immediately.
- US-Iran 60-day roadmap, ongoing: Markets are watching for technical discussions and the monitoring mechanism to translate into sustained, normalised traffic through the strait.
- Gulf producer output announcements, ongoing: Kuwait, ADNOC, and Saudi Arabia readying production increases. Formal timelines would add to the current supply-recovery direction.
Risk Considerations
The brent crude oil price has dropped roughly 19% in a month and both UKOUSD and USOUSD are in oversold RSI territory.[1] Geopolitical headlines can reverse the supply narrative quickly. A breakdown in US-Iran talks would reprice risk in both directions. Stop Loss The $74 Brent and $70 WTI areas remain important technical reference zones that market participants are monitoring closely. These markets have gapped on geopolitical news throughout the conflict period.
Leverage in CFD trading amplifies both potential returns and potential losses relative to the margin used. Position sizing relative to account equity matters particularly ahead of the EIA inventory report on 25 June 2026, where headline-driven intraday swings can exceed normal range assumptions on the Vantage UKOUSD and USOUSD CFDs.
RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.
Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
References
[1] “Brent Crude Oil Price – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil Accessed on 23 June 2026.
[2] “Brent Oil Futures – Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil Accessed on 23 June 2026.
[3] “Oil prices fall, stocks rally as US, Iran sign framework to end war – Al Jazeera” https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/18/oil-prices-fall-stocks-rally-as-us-iran-sign-framework-to-end-war Accessed on 23 June 2026.
[4] “Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2026 – US Energy Information Administration” https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ Accessed on 23 June 2026.
[5] “OPEC+ to raise oil output slightly even as U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran disrupt shipments – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/opec-to-raise-oil-output-slightly-even-as-iran-war-disrupts-shipments.html Accessed on 23 June 2026.
[6] “OPEC+ announces symbolic oil output rise during Strait of Hormuz closure – Al Jazeera” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/opec-announces-symbolic-oil-output-rise-during-strait-of-hormuz-closure Accessed on 23 June 2026.
[7] “Crude Oil WTI Price – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil Accessed on 23 June 2026.
[8] “Oil prices rise after U.S.-Iran peace talks postponed – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/19/oil-prices-wti-brent-crude-us-iran-deal-strait-hormuz-shipping-recovery.html Accessed on 23 June 2026.
[9] “OPEC+ to resume oil output increases as Iran conflict rages – Fortune” https://fortune.com/2026/03/01/opec-oil-output-increase-saudi-arabia-russia-iran-conflict-crude-prices/ Accessed on 23 June 2026.
